Experts sometimes rely on intuition rather than analysis
Deliberation will outperform intuition when you have conscious access to all the necessary data. In such cases, analysis can generate new information that will help you make a better decision. Let's return for one last time to the game of chess...We presented the remarkable finding that chess grandmasters can play the game just as well blindfolded as they can with normal sight of the board. Grandmasters and masters also can play an extremely competent game with just five minutes or less in which to make all of their moves. Chris used to lose regularly to a grandmaster who played the entire game using a total of less than one minute to make all his moves, while giving Chris five minutes to make his. How is this possible?
The leading theory is that expert players recognize familiar patterns in the clusters of pieces they see on the board, and these patterns are connected in their minds to potential strategies, tactics, and even specific moves that are likely to work in those situations. In extreme cases, their pattern recognition may be so good, and their opponents so weak, that grandmasters can win games without doing much analysis at all. In essence, they can rely entirely on intuition and still play well.
Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance. Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or a brain teaser. Mother Nature does not tell you how many holes there are on the roulette table, nor does she deliver problems in a textbook way (in the real world one has to guess the problem more than the solution).
Loss aversion is a notion derived from behavioral economics. In finance, this aversion to loss is reflected in the reluctance ...
A "sunk cost" is just what it sounds like: time or money you've already spent. The sunk-cost fallacy is when you tell yourself that you can't quit because of all that time or money you spent. We shouldn't fall for this fallacy, but we do it all the time.
Dominated Alternatives: Can introducing a third decoy option make you more likely to choose the option, I secretly want you to choose?
In marketing, this is also called the decoy effect or attraction effect or asymmetric dominance effect. A phenomenon whereby the introduction of a third option leads to a change in choice.
Dominated alternatives here quickens the choice patterns of consumers by dulling the relevance of one option by the introduction of another, thereby making one option almost invalid.
More simply, when deciding between two options, an unattractive third option can change the perceived preference between the other two.
Yerkes and Dodson's experiment should make us wonder about the real rela- tionship between payment, motivation, and performance in the labor ...