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1 minute reading

[Representativeness heuristic] When making decisions or judgments, we often use mental shortcuts which can be helpful, but which in other cases, can lead to judgmental errors biases

[Representativeness heuristic] When making decisions or judgments, we often use mental shortcuts which can be helpful, but which in other cases, can lead to judgmental errors biases [Representativeness heuristic] When making decisions or judgments, we often use mental shortcuts which can be helpful, but which in other cases, can lead to judgmental errors biases
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Judgment Under Uncertainty
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Judgment Under Uncertainty
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A person who follows this heuristic (e.d : simple rules governing judgment or decision-making) evaluates the probability of an uncertain event, or a sample, by the degree to which it is:

(i) similar in essential properties to its parent population; and
(ii) reflects the salient features of the process by which it is generated.

Our thesis is that, in many situations, an event A is judged more probable than an event B whenever A appears more representative than B. In other words, the ordering of events by their subjective probabilities coincides with their ordering by representativeness. Representativeness, like perceptual similarity, is easier to assess than to characterize. In both cases, no general definition is available, yet there are many situations where people agree which of two stimuli is more similar to a standard, or which of two events is more representative of a given process. In this paper we (...) show that people consistently judge the more representative event to be the more likely, whether it is or not.

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