|
Previous Next
1 minute reading

The Amara's Law tells us that we tend to overestimate the impact of new technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long run

The Amara's Law tells us that we tend to overestimate the impact of new technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long run The Amara's Law tells us that we tend to overestimate the impact of new technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long run
Font size
A
12 24 17
A

Amara's Law says, "We tend to overestimate the impact of new technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long run.".

Consider the GPS:

The GPS is now in the phase that Amara would call the plateau or long-term. Technology has permeated into our daily lives nearly 40 years after its very invention. We use it to track our sporting performances, or to compute a route; governments use it to monitor parolees or to anticipate shark attacks; farmers to determine the varieties of seeds they need to user; companies to observe their fleets etc. And tomorrow, we will all be driven from point A to point B in a fully autonomous vehicle, which will follow a route calculated using GPS.

And yet, before that:

None of these uses had even been thought of. In 1978 when the first satellite was launched by the United States Department of Defense, its goal was to enable the accurate replenishment of ammunition in the theater of operations in which the army was engaged. But the project was almost abandoned several times during the 1980s, and it only became a real success during the first Gulf War in 1991. It was after several other successes that its utility was recognized by the army. In 1995, the deployment of 24 fully operational satellites (31 today) was completed.

It is during the 2000s and under the impetus of Bill Clinton that the technology will be democratized.

Amara's law is known to perfectly represent the "Cycle of the hype". It also encourages stakeholders to reflect on the long-term effects of technology, which are often difficult to understand and at first glance, very obscure.

____

Source and adaptation :

Rodney Brooks, The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions,  MIT Technology review, ,October 6th, 2017 

Cycle du hype, Wikipedia, consulted on 12.03.2018


Please enter a value.
Choose the language version you want to edit: ENFR

Please not comments are subject to moderators approval

0 examples

Loading …

Your example


Please enter a value.
Similar articles
Topic:
Innovation
Simplicity can be of an extreme complexity
Simplicity can be of an extreme complexity
GIF
eternellement sensuelle via Tumblr

Simple can be harder than complex. You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it’s worth it in the end, because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Topic:
Innovation
Innovation can take decades to come to the market Innovation can take decades to come to the market
Karolis Žiūkas via Artstation

Across the 14 innovations considered in this review a review conducted in 2015, the average time from invention to widespread commercialisation was 39 years.

_____

Source : 

Innovation timelines from invention to Maturiy  - UKERC Technology and Policy Assessment, 2015

 

Topic:
Innovation
Obvious technologies are unseen Obvious technologies are unseen
Triglav LAB via Behance

The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it.

Topic:
Innovation

When you first start off trying to solve a problem, the first solutions you come up with are very complex, and most people stop there. But if you keep going, and live with the problem and peel more layers of the onion off, you can oftentimes arrive at some very elegant and simple solutions. In just a few words, Steve beautifully summed up the difference between Apple and so many other companies. Once Apple comes up with a solution, it’s more of a beginning than an end. It’s by peeling back those layers of Complexity that Apple is able to ...

Topic:
Innovation
Change is the real measure of innovation Change is the real measure of innovation
Florian NICOLLE via Behance

The best — maybe the only? — real, direct measure of ‘innovation’ is change in human behavior.

Row:Column:
×
Row:Column:
×