The Amara's Law tells us that we tend to overestimate the impact of new technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long run
Amara's Law says, "We tend to overestimate the impact of new technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long run.".
Consider the GPS:
The GPS is now in the phase that Amara would call the plateau or long-term. Technology has permeated into our daily lives nearly 40 years after its very invention. We use it to track our sporting performances, or to compute a route; governments use it to monitor parolees or to anticipate shark attacks; farmers to determine the varieties of seeds they need to user; companies to observe their fleets etc. And tomorrow, we will all be driven from point A to point B in a fully autonomous vehicle, which will follow a route calculated using GPS.
And yet, before that:
None of these uses had even been thought of. In 1978 when the first satellite was launched by the United States Department of Defense, its goal was to enable the accurate replenishment of ammunition in the theater of operations in which the army was engaged. But the project was almost abandoned several times during the 1980s, and it only became a real success during the first Gulf War in 1991. It was after several other successes that its utility was recognized by the army. In 1995, the deployment of 24 fully operational satellites (31 today) was completed.
It is during the 2000s and under the impetus of Bill Clinton that the technology will be democratized.
Amara's law is known to perfectly represent the "Cycle of the hype". It also encourages stakeholders to reflect on the long-term effects of technology, which are often difficult to understand and at first glance, very obscure.
We are still the masters of our fate. Rational thinking, even assisted by any conceivable electronic computors, cannot predict the future. All it can do is to map out the probability space as it appears at the present and which will be different tomorrow when one of the infinity of possible states will have materialized. Technological and social inventions are broadening this probability space all the time; it is now incomparably larger than it was before the industrial revolution—for good or for evil.
The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented.
It was man’s ability to invent which has made human society what it is. The mental processes of inventions are still mysterious. They are rational but not logical, that is to say, not deductive.
Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion’, and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.
Social media has given everyone a virtual megaphone to broadcast every thought, along with the means to filter out any contrary view [...] The result is a creeping sense of isolation and emptiness, which leads people to swipe, tap, and click all the more. Digital distraction keeps the mind occupied but does little to nurture it, much less cultivate depth of feeling, which requires the resonance of another’s voice within our very bones and psyches.
Moravec's paradox is the observation by artificial intelligence and robotics researchers that, contrary to traditional assumptions, reasoning (which is high-level in humans) requires very little ...
Almost always the men who achieve these fundamental inventions of a new paradigm have been either very young or very new to the field whose paradigm they change. And perhaps that point need not have been made explicit, for obviously these are the men who, being little committed by prior practice to the traditional rules of normal science, are particularly likely to see that those rules no longer define a playable game and to conceive another set that can replace them.